ATEAM – Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling
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Abstract
Ecosystems provide a number of vital services for European people and society. Global environmental changes such as climate change, land use change and atmospheric pollution can have significant effects on these ecosystem services. For example, the capacity of European ecosystems to provide fresh water, agricultural products, biodiversity and recreational opportunities is likely to be affected by global change. Many people and organisations in Europe have a direct interest in the well-functioning of ecosystems. The ATEAM project is concerned with the risks that global change poses to the interests of these stakeholders. By assessing the vulnerability to global change of sectors relying on ecosystem services, ATEAM will support stakeholders in their decision-making and will promote sustainable use of ecosystems.
Objectives
ATEAM's main objective is to assess the vulnerability of human sectors relying on ecosystem services with respect to global change. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which ecosystems, and the organisms that make them up, sustain and fulfil human life. Vulnerability is the degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global change plus the degree to which the sector that relies on this service is unable to cope with the changes.
ATEAM's integrative assessment approach includes several tasks:
- developing a comprehensive modelling framework for predicting the dynamics of services provided by major European terrestrial ecosystems at a regional scale.
- developing macro-scale indicators of society's adaptive capacity to changes in ecosystem service provision.
- developing a range of scenarios for socio-economic development, land-use change, pollution levels, atmospheric composition and climate change up to the year 2100.
- maintaining a continuous dialogue with stakeholders to ensure the applicability of results for the management of natural resources.
- developing a series of maps depicting regions and sectors that are especially vulnerable to global change.
ATEAM sector: Agriculture
Ecosystem services:
- Food & fibre production
- Power generation (biofuels, e.g. rape seed, sugar beet)
- Landscape diversity
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Crop yield, yield variability & profitability
- Physical suitability of crops
- Management change
- Soil fertility, erosion & salinisation
- Biofuel crops suitability and yield
The ATEAM will apply alternative socio-economic and climate change scenarios for agriculture in the future. Socio-economic variables at the regional scale will be derived from population development, the development of prices and costs of agricultural products, policies for land use planning regulations and policies for environmental protection areas.
ATEAM sector: Forestry
Ecosystem services:
- Wood production
- Power generation (biofuel: wood biomass)
- Landscape diversity
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Tree productivity: wood biomass & increment (heartwood, sapwood)
- Felling potential, age classes & natural tree mortality
- Suitability of tree species
- Biofuel wood suitability and yield
- Forest management change
- Pest susceptibility
The ATEAM will apply a forest modelling framework driven by changes in climate, land use, and in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. The model framework takes forest management practices into account. It does however leave the evaluation of economic profitability to the stakeholders e.g. of the forest industry.
ATEAM sector: Carbon storage & energy
Ecosystem services:
- Carbon sequestration
- Power generation (biofuels)
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Carbon storage in vegetation
- Carbon storage in soil
The Kyoto Protocol specified legally binding commitments by most industrialized countries to reduce their collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An important Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) strategy is maintaining important carbon sinks like soil organic matter and European forests. The carbon storage & energy sector within ATEAM quantifies the carbon sinks within Europe under global change. This information is useful to stakeholders within energy related industries to support their long term planning regarding the Kyoto protocol mitigation policies. What will be the effectiveness of afforestation as a means of sequestering carbon under the terms of the UN-FCCC Kyoto Protocol, given that some degree of climate change is inevitable?
ATEAM sector: Water
Ecosystem services:
- Water supply (households, agriculture)
- Drought & flood prevention
- Transport
- Power generation
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Stream flow quality
- Stream flow quantity
A succession of floods and droughts in the previous years has illustrated Europe's vulnerability to hydrological extremes. Apart from that there are many other water-related pressures on the environment, such as increasing demand for water. The quality of Europe's rivers is threatened by the discharge of sewage, industrial waste and the excessive application of pesticides and fertilisers. At the same time institutional aspects of water resource management are changing towards strategies of sustainable water use. What are the most pressing problems Europe's water managers will have to deal with in the next 100 years?
ATEAM sector: Biodiversity & nature conservation
Ecosystem services:
- Beauty
- Life support processes (e.g. pollination)
- Future options (e.g. genetic diversity)
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Species richness
- Species representation probability in nature reserve planning
- Species persistence
- Habitat richness
Europe's landscapes are a patchy mixture of natural and semi-natural ecosystems in a highly urbanised, agricultural landscape. Protected sites and nature reserves form an important biodiversity and conservation investment across the whole of Europe. The distribution of species and habitats is however likely to change in the future. This will demand for changes in nature reserve areas and management and may have an impact on the recreational value and beauty of Europe's landscapes.
ATEAM sector: Mountains
Mountains are treated seperately within ATEAM, due to the unique nature of mountain ecosystems, e.g. as "water towers of Europe" or the importance of winter tourism for mountain countries.
Ecosystem services:
- Tourism (e.g. winter sports)
- Recreation (e.g. hunting, walking)
- Carbon sequestration (in the light of extensification of agriculture)
- Water supply
Indicators within the ATEAM assessment framework:
- Snow (cover time, amount, elevation of snow line)
- Slope stability (risk of landslide)
- landscape partitioning (e.g. forest/meadow)
- Carbon storage in selected ecosystems and catchments
- Water (quantities, peak flows, duration of drought periods)
Mountains have attracted major economic investments for tourism, hydropower, and communication routes. The Mountain regions are characterised by sensitive ecosystems and enhanced occurences of extreme weather events. This combination demands for careful management of environmental and socio-economic drivers. What perturbations will sectors such as winter tourism be likely to experience in the future?
